Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Bonds crashing! 10year yield nearing 4%!

This is not good. There is a ten year auction today on ten year bonds, and, well it is not going so well. The stock market is finally responding to the higher interest rates like you would expect it to. This is huge news. This is a major secular shift in the direction of treasuries, and this is extremely bearish for the "greenshoots" in our economy. All of the government and federal reserve's efforts to get the credit market's working again are for nought due to the rising tide of interest rates.

The wild card now is the dollars response to the rising interest rates. Right now the dollar is strengthening, which is helping the market to sell off, but if we go into a real bottomless crash in bonds, the dollar should come under pressure as well, bonds and the dollar could both go into freefall, which would be the perfect storm for hyper inflation.

Cash21

No comments:

Post a Comment