Summer Season=better jobs numbers

The better than expected jobs numbers, although its bodes well as a headline, is probably due to the spring and summer seasons where seasonal jobs begin due to the warmer climate. The numbers for Febuary and March were revised downward, and the unemployment rate hit 8.9%. I wonder how those people are going to make their credit card payments and house payments, and auto loans, etc...

Bonds look like they are going to retrace upwards a little, as the stock market starts to pull back. The traditional "flight to quality" will take its course, maybe. Generally, when the stock market sells off, those dollars go into "safe" investments like U.S. Treasuries. But if you overlay a chart of the 30year treasury and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, you will see that while the Dow was hitting its lows in March, there was also a sell off going on in the treasury market. This, to me, says that the investors were both selling american stocks and U.S. Bonds, I see this as long term very bearish for our economy.

Treasurys will rally initially when the stock market begins to fall again but if the market continues to fall, I believe that you will see the Bond market and stock market begin to fall together in tandem, just like the bonds and share prices of Lehman and Bear Stearns.

Yesterdays sell off was partially due to the lack of interest in the 30year treasury auction, and the sell off in treasuries that ensued. Classic over supply conditions in the treasury market.

Cash21